Six days ago, Mega Evolution Chaos Rising hit shelves. The receipts are in, and the May 12 nerdbeak preview called the Pokemon Center ETB at $120 to $180 same-day resale.
Actual landed range on eBay listings right now: $160 to $225. That call held to the top of the range.
The chase card the preview named is doing exactly what the preview said it would. The surprise climber the preview did not call has its own line item too.
The Pokemon Center ETB Receipts
Pokemon Center MSRP held at $59.99. The drop sold through in the now-standard 2-7 minute window. Wargamer reporting in the days before launch had pre-sale comps hitting $215 to $249.99.
Six days post-launch, current eBay listings sit in the $160 to $225 asking range. That is asking-and-pre-sale data, not a confirmed average sold-comp. Frame it as where the market is currently quoting, not where every box has cleared.
The May 12 call ($120 to $180) landed at the top of its range. The Pokemon Center exclusive ETB ships 11 packs instead of the 9 in the standard retail ETB, two Fennekin full-art promos with one of them Pokemon Center stamped, and an exclusive metallic Mega Greninja promo with the Pokemon Center logo.
That promo stack is doing the work. Collectors who pulled an ETB at MSRP won the day. Everyone else is paying aftermarket.
The Chase the Preview Named
Mega Greninja ex SIR (#116/086) is the chase. Current listings $470 to $583 ungraded, TCGPlayer market $470 to $505.
The Mega Hyper Rare printing (#122/086) is asking $330 to $485. The non-SIR Ultra Rare version sits around $28.
Pull rates explain the price floor. Combined SIR rate is roughly 1 in 86 packs. Mega Greninja ex SIR specifically lands at roughly 1 in 1,000. The Mega Hyper Rare is roughly 1 in 1,786.
A PSA 10 Mega Greninja ex SIR has been projected by single-source forecasts in the $900 to $1,200 range. That is a forecast, not a confirmed sale comp. Treat it as where the card is positioned to land, not where it has cleared.
Mega Greninja ex SIR is following the Mega Evolution block four-figure trajectory. It is not there yet on confirmed sales. It is positioned to get there if the block pattern holds.
The Surprise the Preview Didn't Call
Cinccino ex SIR (#119/086) is asking $88 to $122. The preview did not call this one. It should have.
Cinccino has a smaller fanbase than Greninja by an order of magnitude, but the SIR art and the limited print of the SIR slot is doing the heavy lifting. This is the kind of card that quietly climbs while the chase headline takes the attention.
AZ's Tranquility SIR (#120/086) is holding $48 to $54 on X/Y nostalgia. PriceCharting has it at $48.14, comicbook.com flagged it near $50, and aggregation lands the SIR at $48 to $54.
That is the SIR (#120/086) specifically. The standard holo (#76) trades around $4.86 and the reverse holo near $0.19. AZ as an X/Y-era trainer card has a real following, and the SIR slot is where the value sits.
The rest of the SIR roster reads: Mega Dragalge ex SIR $79 to $105, Mega Floette ex SIR $64 to $75, Roxie's Performance SIR $38 to $55. The Froakie / Frogadier / Greninja IR triptych (#88, #89, #99) prices around $60 combined as a raw budget chase set.
The Competitive Read, With the Nuance
Mega Lucario ex is the dominant Standard meta deck right now. Mega Lucario ex is not in Chaos Rising.
This is the nuance that the copy-paste accounts are mangling. Mega Lucario ex is from ME01 Mega Evolution, which dropped September 26, 2025. It is the deck of the format. It put Rahul Reddy 10th at Regional Melbourne on May 23, 2026 and Malthe Kusk Lauritsen 56th at Regional Utrecht on May 16, 2026.
What dropped on May 22 alongside Chaos Rising is the Mega Lucario ex League Battle Deck at $29.99 retail. That product contains three Mega Lucario ex cards from the ME01 set. Same release day. Separate SKU. Separate set.
The current Standard format reads as Dragapult ex variants against Mega Lucario fighting toolboxes. Chaos Rising's Mega ex roster (Greninja, Pyroar, Floette, Dragalge, Gallade as the English-exclusive) is still earning its tournament reps.
Keep those threads clean. Mega Lucario ex from ME01 is the meta deck. The League Battle Deck is the same-day product. Chaos Rising's Mega Greninja ex SIR is the chase card.
What the Receipts Say Overall
Chaos Rising is hitting Mega Evolution block velocity. Not Ascended Heroes velocity. Cleanly above Perfect Order.
Pokemon Center ETB landed exactly where the preview said it would. Chase cards are landing where Mega block chases land, with Mega Greninja ex SIR carrying the headline and Cinccino ex SIR doing the quiet climb.
The set ships 122 cards including 5 Mega Evolution Pokemon ex and 6 Special Illustration Rares. The pull rate math is tight. The chase math is real.
Bottom Line
The May 12 call held. The TPC distribution playbook held. The chase card hierarchy held.
Collectors who got Pokemon Center ETBs at $59.99 won. Everyone else is paying $160-plus on the aftermarket six days in, and singles buyers are paying $470-plus for the Mega Greninja ex SIR. The block keeps doing what the block does.
