Funko announces fourth quarter 2025 financial results tomorrow, March 12, at 4:30 p.m. ET. The consensus revenue forecast is $206.5 million. That would be down approximately 11% year over year.
The stock is trading near its 52-week low of $2.22. Analysts are split. One Buy rating. Six Holds. Zero Sells. The average price target is $7.13, which would represent a double from current levels. But nobody is pounding the table.
This is the quarter that tells you whether the turnaround is real or whether Funko is just cutting its way to profitability while the top line keeps shrinking.
The Three-Year Rebuild
Rewind to March 2023. Funko announced it would destroy $30 to $36 million in excess inventory. Literally sent product to the landfill. The company had ended 2022 with $246 million in inventory, up 48% year over year. They had massively overproduced during the collectibles boom and got caught when demand pulled back.
That triggered a 10% workforce cut. The CEO at the time was out within months. The stock cratered.
The recovery has been slow. Full-year 2024 revenue came in at $1.05 billion, down 4.2% from 2023. Then 2025 brought more pain. Q2 revenue dropped 21.8% year over year to $193.5 million. U.S. sales fell 20.1%.
Q3 showed signs of stabilization. Revenue was $250.9 million, still down 14.3%, but adjusted EPS came in at $0.06. That beat the consensus forecast of negative $0.07. Gross margin held at 40.2%. The company was losing less money than expected.
Josh Simon took over as CEO on September 1, 2025. He came from Netflix, where he ran consumer products. Before that, Nike and Disney. Six months in, tomorrow is his first full-year report card.
What Wall Street Expects
The Q4 consensus is $206.5 million in revenue. Funko's own guidance called for a modest increase over Q3's $250.9 million, driven by Pop! Yourself expanding into Europe and new licensed product lines. If the company hits its own guidance, it should land somewhere in the $255 to $260 million range.
That is a significant gap between what Funko is guiding and what Wall Street expects. Either analysts are being conservative or they do not believe management's forecast. Tomorrow we find out which.
Gross margin is expected around 40%. Adjusted EBITDA margin in the mid to high single digits.
The tariff situation is the wildcard. Funko estimated $40 million in tariff-related cost headwinds for 2025. The company has been diversifying its supply chain away from China, but that transition takes time and money.
The LEGO Comparison
Context matters. LEGO just posted $13 billion in revenue. That is more than Hasbro and Mattel combined. LEGO grew 12% while the overall toy market grew 7%. Net profit surged 21% to $2.6 billion.
Funko's trailing twelve-month revenue is roughly $900 million. LEGO makes that in about three weeks.
This is not to kick Funko while it's down. It is to frame what's happening in the collectibles market. The companies with strong brands, diversified manufacturing, and pricing power are thriving. The companies that over-extended during the boom and got caught with excess inventory are still digging out.
What Matters Tomorrow
Three things to watch on the call.
Inventory levels. The 2023 crisis started with inventory bloat. If current inventory is lean and healthy, the recovery has structural legs. If it's creeping back up, the cycle could repeat.
2026 guidance. Simon has been CEO for six months. He will need to present a credible growth plan. What does the product pipeline look like. What licensed partnerships are coming. How is the tariff strategy evolving.
Revenue trajectory. Q2 was down 21.8%. Q3 was down 14.3%. Q4 consensus expects down 11%. The trend is improving. If Q4 comes in better than expected, the narrative shifts from "still declining" to "bottoming out." If it comes in worse, the stock has very little floor beneath it.
The Collector Angle
For Funko collectors, the financial results matter less than the product pipeline. But financial health determines what products get made.
A healthy Funko invests in new licenses, new formats, and new retail partnerships. A struggling Funko cuts SKUs, reduces quality, and leans on core Pop! lines to preserve margin.
The Pop! format still dominates the affordable collectibles space. No other company has that level of licensed breadth across movies, TV, gaming, anime, and sports at the $10 to $15 price point. That moat exists regardless of quarterly revenue.
But the moat only matters if the company behind it stays solvent. Tomorrow's call will tell us how far along that path they are.
